Why Florida Matters

For the Democrats Florida does matter:

1) Clinton took 50% of the vote in one of the most
diverse states

2) Many Floridians voted early - In California and
many other states people have been voting for up to
a month already - meaning that anywhere from a third to
one half of the vote is already in - before the Kennedy
endorsement took place

3) The percentage vote broke down pretty close to what
took place in both Nevada and to some extent South Carolina and New Hampshire - Obama got the great majority of African-American votes, Clinton got the great majority of white and Hispanic votes, Obama got the college educated/upper class vote, Clinton got the downstream vote -
All this means that whether the candidates campaigned or not in the state the results were eerily similar when they did campagin

4) If this model holds, then many Super Tuesday states will fall to Clinton - California, New York, New Jersey, etc. Obama will be very competitive in Illinois and the southern states.

5) The Florida delegates could be pivotal. If the election is still close and goes to the convention, how could the national party not allow Florida to be fully seated? - Without a full functioning Florida Democratic Party in place for the November election, the Dems will cede the state to the Republicans and most likely give the election to McCain.

So don't be fooled by the media's pronouncement that Florida was just a beauty contest. Everything in an election is closely scrutinized by all campaigns. For Clinton there was much to crow about and for Obama much to worry about.

When Will We Ever Learn?

At what point will the gun lobby fold some of its cards and give in to common sense? Perhaps there is no point of return. Presidents have been killed and shot at and little has been done to rein in all the guns that are on our streets. Meaningless handgun laws like The Brady Act tinker at the edge of the gun problem but do little to stop the continued carnage in our nation. At what number of those killed by a mass murder will the American people recoil in horror and realize that a civilized society cannot afford to have people running around with rapid fire weapons and guns that have stronger force than the law enforcement agents paid to protect us?

If ever there was an opportunity to turn the tide you would have thought that the recent killings on the Virginia Tech campus would bring all of us to that point of reason and start the necessary steps toward meaningful gun control. Well now we know that the number thirty is too small a number to stop the gun people. In the past two weeks, both the Virginia Assembly and Senate have voted to stop even the meekest of proposals - the ban of sales to mentally ill people by private gun owners.

The conservative Hokie campus was devastated by the shooting spree conducted by Seung-Hui Cho. Many of the families and students effected by the rampage called for the most minimal change in state law. They were not calling for any wholesale ban on gun ownership (although they really should have) but just for steps to be taken to keep guns away from those with a penchant for unstable actions. The NRA and its minions would not back down for this sensible request and have used their influence to stop it from becoming a law.

There is a saying that a small dedicated group can do a lot. Jesus and his small group of followers set a religion revolution that continues to this day. Lenin and the Bolsheviks in Russia terrorized a nation throughout the twentieth century. And in the USA, the gun lobby has its way with the majority of politicians (Democrat and Republican), while the rest of us must live in fear of an unexpected bullet that might find its way to harm or kill us.

If the majority rules, than something needs to be done. But at what number of dead people, will we say enough is enough and stand up for what is right and decent?

They Are People Too

From afar we worship them. Actors, Athletes, Politicians. We follow their exploits through People magazine, the E Channel, and on websites like TMZ. If it is someone we truly admire we share in their good fortune. If something ill happens to one that we don't particularly like, a perverse happiness seems to invade our soul.

Are we bored with the mundane things of life? Are we weary of our day to day chores? Psychiatrists and other surveyors of the human condition attempt to figure out why so many of us are enamored of the famous. Whatever the reason, there is no end to the celebrity news that keeps our attention. We will never meet Brittney, Lindsay, or Paris but we think we know them. We see snippets of their lives as they run to and from the cameras that follow them when they leave their private lairs.

But it is days like this one, that the shock hits us. These celebrities are people too. They have good days and lousy ones. They might have close friends and then again they might be extremely lonely. Their careers can be on the rise or they can be looking for meaningful work. The truth is we do not know and when you really analyze things, what happens to these people is none of our business.

So it was sad to hear that a good looking, talented twenty-eight year old from Australia died today. The gossip mills will keep Heath Ledger's name in the news as coroners dig into his once vibrant body to find the cause of death. Even if drugs (prescribed or otherwise) are found to be the root cause, we will never truly know if young Mr. Ledger accidentally ingested them or if some internal problem led him to take his own life. We will mourn for a day or so. We will go to see his new Batman movie. We will listen for the juicy info about how his death took place. But then we will move on to the news about someone else.

For a moment we are all pausing to remember Heath Ledger. But we never knew him. His parents, siblings, former wife, and close friends will mourn for him for a long time. And that is how it should be. Celebrities are no different than us. They live and die within a small circle of acquaintances and are pushed to and fro by the same forces that attack and attract all of us. May we honor Heath Ledger by giving his family and friends the space they need to reflect and then move on with their own lives.

Fear & Loathing In Vegas

What must have gone through the mind of Hillary Clinton the night that Barack Obama won the Iowa Caucuses. Her inevitable crowning as the presumptive Democratic candidate was on hold. Standing on stage with a nineties reunion that included husband Bill, General Clark, and Secretary of State Albright could not have invoked much optimism in the former first lady. That she went straight on to New Hampshire (without any sleep) and fought hard for the next five days and eked out a surprising victory still could not prepare her for the week ahead.

After squaring the victories at one each, Hillary still had to endure a spat of big time endorsements of her Illinois rival, led by the party's last nominee, John Kerry. Then in a further punch to the gut, the all encompassing Culinary Union, came out publicly for Obama. The Union controlled Las Vegas caucus voting in nine big casinos and was sure to put all of its collective muscle against Mrs. Clinton.

Things got down and dirty in Nevada as Black vs. Hispanic supporters and arguments over the machinations of caucus procedures dominated the headlines. In New Hampshire, Clinton showed a softer side. In Vegas, with a little help from Bill, Clinton showed she could fight as she pulled another victory away from her opponent.

A veteran of all types of political wars, Hillary Clinton is not one to be scared. When all seems to be against her, she reaches within to find new ways to strike her enemies, and get what she wants. Two victories in a row, perhaps against all odds, must be striking fear in Obama's campaign lieutenants.

In one week, Dems will vote in South Carolina. This might be the one and only change for African-Americans to fully support one of their own. This has to be an Obama win. But Clinton will try to make the election as close as possible. She went straight from Vegas to Harlem, where she will speak at Abyssinian Baptist,one of the more famous black churches. Winning some; perhaps losing some - Clinton is truly running a national campaign where no constituency is left behind.

An Unholy Trinity and New York's Mayors

Three issues. The big three. The ones that many social conservatives hang their hats on. There can be no compromises. Abortion is murder. Marriage must be limited to one man and one woman. Americans can carry their guns wherever they want. Any deviation from these positions will cause political death for national Republican candidates and vast electoral losses for any presidential aspirant in the so called red states.

Why bring up these seemingly known facts now? Because the experts and pundits have collective amnesia or are just plain stupid. First it was Rudy Giuliani and now it threatens to be Michael Bloomberg.

Rudy rose to the early top of GOP contenders with his hard stance on security and terrorism. But didn't anyone see how quick his fall would become once his opponents pointed out his divergent record on the three big conservative concerns. A tough as nails record on crime and a resurgence of New York as a civil place to live would not be enough for the "nation's mayor" to run his campaign on. His pro choice record, his cozying up to the large gay New York population, and the driving need to clean the city streets of weapons are anathema to the middle Americans who wholeheartedly uphold the trinity's basic line of no compromise. The truth is that Rudy himself knew that his earlier history would doom him in Iowa and South Carolina where evangelical voters would dominate the voting. That is why he basically has skipped both states and is focusing on retirement folks down in Florida. In America in 2008, no candidate for the GOP title can be anything but orthodox on these three heartfelt social issues.

Now that Rudy is plunging in the polls, the true social conservatism that lies deep within Republican ranks has been exposed. The current New York mayor, Michael Bloomberg, should look studiously at the Giuliani story and abandon his ill fated third party candidacy before it really begins. Where will he get votes from? His positions are much more liberal than his predecessor's. His heroic work to ban guns within the city is blasphemy to many red staters. There is no way in hell that Bloomberg will pick up any electoral votes in the south, the mountain west, and most of the mid west. All he will end up doing is splitting votes with the Democratic candidate in places like Oregon, California, New York, and Massachusetts and delivering the presidency to a Republican. Forget about the need for an economics savior to come and help us in a time of recession. The twenty-five percent or so that follow the Unholy Trinity would rather our nation fall into a Great Depression before pulling the lever for a man who does not follow their social prescripts.

The media observers seem to live for the moment and have forgotten to look at the bigger picture. Rudy was going to win the terrorist war and now he won't even win Boca Raton. Bloomberg is going to lead us to new wealth but instead his running for the highest office in the land will stop the "change" everyone is calling for and keep the country on a path of ruin.

The Bucket List

You have to wade through about thirty minutes of up close excruciating pain as you watch two elderly men deal emotionally and physically with the death sentence that has come upon each of them. Seeing Morgan Freeman and an even more suffering Jack Nicholson alone in their hospital room is not anyone's idea of movie escapism. But director Rob Reiner has a purpose in his new tale of two very different people who form a bond, a friendship, and an adventure over their last three months of life.

Once out of the hospital room, the Bucket List becomes a philosophical/spiritual treatise on the meaning of life. This most unusual movie uses the fun scenes (i.e. car racing, parachute jumping, etc.) as mere diversions to continually bring the viewer back to his or her own mortality. Borrowing a bit of Islam, Buddhism, ancient Egyptian philosophy, and a healthy dose of Christianity, Reiner has put his finger on the ultimate question - did you enjoy your life while you possessed it and in your pursuit of happiness did you bring others along for the ride.

A deep movie. One that continually puts the shortness of life on parade. A bit brutal. Perhaps not light enough. But a lesson all of us need to heed.

Hillary's Teardrop

One-liners. Emotional moments. Over-the-top speeches. All have done in prominent presidential contenders.

Way back in 1967, George Romney (yes, current GOP presidential aspirant Mitt Romney's dad) stated that he was more supportive of the Vietnam war effort after touring the southeast Asia nation with U.S. military leaders who had "brainwashed" him. Romney, who ultimately was against the war, showed mental weakness by allowing the fact that others could completely change his deeply held positions.

A few years later, in snowy New Hampshire, Maine Senator Edmund Muskie apparently began crying as he defended charges that his wife was emotionally unstable. The pity party did little to alleviate the accusations against his wife by the Manchester Union-Leader newspaper, but apparently marked Muskie himself as a bit too emotional for the position of commander-in-chief.

A third example took place in the last presidential election cycle. On the night that former front runner, Howard Dean, lost the Iowa Caucuses, he ranted about his campaign going on and gave a weird whooping sound at the end of his screeching. This strange moment froze Dean for all eternity and single handedly ended any hopes he had of becoming president.

A moment in time. There for the world to see. In most political situations, a time of doom. And yet this past weekend we might have witnessed another dramatic moment that might become inscribed in our memories not for negativity but as a remembrance when a certain candidate truly began her campaign for the White House. Based on yesterday's New Hampshire results, this peek into someone's soul might be the springboard that person needed to become our next president.

By now most are aware that Hillary Clinton facing the onslaught of Obamamania, great dips in scientific polling, and a media blitz that for the most part was already writing her eulogy, experienced an epiphany of sorts. Asked at a morning breakfast meeting "How she does it?", Clinton took off the mask and shyness that surrounds her public persona and allowed all of us, just for a moment, to see within her soul. She said it was not easy campaigning within all the negativity but she became teary eyed and her voice broke for a second or so as she talked about her passion to help "all of us."

The iron lady had broken. The attempt to push her gender aside to show that she could be a tough leader was over. For maybe the first time in this long national campaign the real person shone through. She is caring. She is competent. And yes she can shed tears and still be one we can trust. Whether this will be enough to stop Senator Obama's momentum will be decided by voters in Nevada, South Carolina, and beyond. But for the voters in New Hapshire, Hillary's human moment, warranted her a second chance.

The Heat Is On Hillary

What can poor Hillary do? She may or may not be up against an unstoppable force in Barack Obama. Oprah Winfrey has a pretty good track record and seems to have sprinkled her magic dust upon Obama and his photogenic wife, Michelle. The mantra is CHANGE and the young people seem to be running with it. Who would not love to see the tall lanky Senator who holds such refined oratorical skills? Who would not come away touched by meeting his equally resplendent wife? And who would not want to embrace the entire family after seeing his two charming daughters? Black, Mexican, Asian, White - it does not matter. Obama has the Winfrey feeling that supersedes race and other politically calculated demographic data.

So what can Hillary do against such a force of nature? She already has freshened up her personal appearance and is looking more poised and fresh than she has in years. She tows her mother and daughter around to rallies to appeal to old and new alike. She continually adapts her message to reach those who seem to be moving towards her opponent - calling for change, an end to the war, universal health coverage, and now openly admitting that she too can help the young.

So what is her problem? Plenty! Perhaps there really is a "Clinton Fatigue" and there is nothing she can do to stop that. Maybe Bill is getting a bit gray haired and his appeal is only to the AARP generation. But if she does not allow her husband on the stump what will the media make of that? She takes money from unions but also from Washington connected insiders. But without their money, where would she be. She has to stay viable through February 5th when two dozen states will have their say in this nomination process. How can she get the money for ads if not from the party establishment. You would think that women would be rallying to her side but at least in Iowa that did not happen. Could there be a hidden female vote that calls for a man to be the nation's leader.

So, finally, what can Hillary really do? Wake up early and go to sleep late. Reach out to as many people as possible. Meet the press and answer the questions. Stand firm in the seat of turmoil and wait for the media and public to question Barack Obama's true credentials. Be strong, be encouraging, be positive, and be yourself. If that does not work, she should still be proud of reaching this far into the campaign and realize that it was more of an Oprah-Obama year than a rejection of herself.

Give It Up For Barack

What exactly does Barack Obama stand for? What actual experience has he had that would leave someone to vote for him for president? On Thursday night in overwhelmingly white Iowa, the photogenic Illinois Senator overcame the doubts many might have harbored about him, and won a convincing first in the nation caucus victory. Not only did Obama win the Democratic side of the voting but he helped pull in thousands of new caucus goers, young enthusiasts, Independents, and even hundreds of moderate Republicans. He withstood everything Clinton and Edwards could throw his way and is now poised to take New Hampshire and sew up the Democratic nomination.

But in the midst of the well deserved hoopla, Obama strategists still need to concretely answer the two questions posed at the top of this blog. He calls for change but what type of change does he want. Sometimes he seems like a polished Kucinich, ranting against the war profiteers and getting the liberal base excited. Yet at other times he seems more professorial and cautious and not that different from the more moderate Hillary Clinton. In his victory speech he acted like he was the governor of Illinois claiming that people came to him and he pulled together a coalition that brought affordable health care to his state. The reality was that he was a state senator and not a chief executive.

Clinton backers need to be worried about the large victory Obama pulled out in a state lacking much of an African-American base and that vacillates between both parties. If he can do so well in middle America, what will stop him in the more urbanized New Hampshire and in a South Carolina that already has been wooed by his new friend and mentor, Oprah Winfrey.

Obama needs to define himself and continue to press the action. If he gives up the offense and does not answer the two key questions, he will let Clinton back in the race. The ball is in his court.