We Came To Praise Obama and ... Palin?

It's hard keeping up with the news. Imagine the plight of columnists and bloggers who were all set to sing the praises of Barack Obama and the Democrats: How they made peace in the imperial mile high city of Denver, held the coronation of the young Senator Barrackus Obamus, and symbolically put the political daggar into the heart of general Julius McCain even before his own convention circus in Saint Paul. Our words were getting sharpened, our points ready to be made, and our opinions set to be recorded for all posterity.

But just a scant twelve hours or so after the curtain fell on the 84,000 strong Democratic party, word came that McCain had an ace up his sleeve. More accurately, he had bagged big game from the far north. McCain surprised everyone by choosing first term Alaska Governor, Sarah Palin, as his newly minted running mate. All of us who write and report on things political, had to "stop the presses" and reset what we were going to comment about.

The first paragraph above is more than enough talk about Obama. It is obvious with his large TV crowd (more watched his speech than did the opening ceremony of the Olympics), his newly minted eight point Gallup spread, and the general feel goodness of all towards the Clintons and Obama's own VP choice, Joe Biden, all seemed well.

McCain must have sensed as much as he made a last minute change in his plans and chose the photogenic Mrs. Palin. All eyes had fallen upon another conservative voice, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. All eyes were wrong. McCain must have seen strong internal polling data and was convinced that a last minute "Hail Mary" choice would be his only chance of winning the election.

By choosing Governor Palin here is what McCain gained:

- The loyalty and enthusiasm of the same Evangelical bloc that supported President Bush.

- A storyline for people to follow in St. Paul and an opportunity to have his own strong TV ratings.

- The chance to reinforce his western style outside the box maverick appeal.

- An opportunity to peel away some middle of the road Hillary Clinton supporters.

By choosing Governor Palin here is what McCain lost:

-Much of his credibility. Over and over again, McCain acknowledged that he was not young and needed the most seasoned person to be his number two.

-A large group of moderate, so called independent voters. By moving so dramatically to his right McCain will no longer be able to win over environmentalists, animal rights activists, moderate pro choice women and men, and many other groups who will look at Governor Palin's statements and record and realize how right wing she really is.

-The trust of GOP leaders. If he was going to pick a religious conservative why not Pawlenty or Governor Huckabee, the former Presidential candidate? If a woman, why now Senator Kay Baily Hutchinson of Texas or his own economic guru, Carly Fiorina? With little regard to gathering the opinions of his party veterans, McCain showed them that he himself would be in charge of things; not them.

-The trust of ordinary citizens. Perhaps Governor Palin will be an incredible quick learn, pick up the vital talking points needed to handle the press and used in debates, and turn this whole thing around for the GOP. But if she stumbles just a bit, people will wonder what other type of "knee-jerk" decisions will this future commander-in-chief make. He already went out on quite a limb with his cold war style reaction to the recent Georgia-Russia conflict. Is McCain the seasoned political pro who can make the nuanced diplomatic decisions needed to keep the country on an even keel or will he throw caution to the wind in order to make political hay?

Thank The Clintons

A little made up tension is not such a bad thing. Of course, anyone with any knowledge of politics knows that Bill and Hillary would come around to fully support Senator Obama. (This is being written just hours before Bill's Wednesday night speech). The two of them are Democrats and any longtime member of a major political party must find a way to bury the hatchet and move on with the majority. The Clintons are not fools and know where their bread is buttered.

But with a convention in Denver devoid of any suspense, as it is already preordained that Obama would receive the nomination, why not add a little drama to the mix to convince people that turning into the convention would be "must see TV". Without the Clinton angle what would the convention have looked like. A bunch of no name politicos praising Obama and raining damnation upon McCain and President Bush. After a few tired speeches (see keynote speaker Mark Warner as an example), the general population would have turned off the cable and broadcast channels airing the Denver love fest and gone back to more entertaining options on their cable boxes.

So in the long run, the so called "Obama-Clinton rift" will be looked at as a blessing. Monday night, over twenty-two million watched as Michelle Obama sang her husband's praises while giving the first salvo of recognition to Hillary. Tuesday night, millions more were riveted as Hillary herself
gave a concise twenty-three minute speech proclaiming her loyalty to Mr. Obama. Instead of a plodding speech by a former president, all eyes are now going to be glued to the screen as Bill reaches within himself to come to peace with his wife's former competitor. And of course, Thursday night promises more excitement as not only Barack Obama accepts an historical nomination but uses part of his precious time to thank the Clintons for their newly found love.

The Democratic Party's long primary battle squeezed the GOP and John McCain off the front pages for months on end and this last bit of suspense has continued the process. The Republicans will be hard pressed to create the Hollywood story that is playing out in Denver and will almost definitely come short in drawing the amount of Americans who watched the Democrat's convention. The fight for unity and hope just still might trump the call for a retreat to the past and a play for the politics of fear and hatred.

The Narrative In Beijing & Denver

NBC paid billions for the Olympics. They would be damned if anything got in their way of scoring high ratings and turning as many bucks as possible. The first week found the Michael Phelps journey falling into their laps. Coupled with the week and a half battle between America's gymnastic sweethearts and the allegedly underage Chinese tumblers, the Olympics took on a life of its own. Night after night the screen was filled with swimming, bikini clad American volleyballers, and high flying gymnasts. Although not quite as exciting to American audiences (at least to NBC's thinking), the network did get a second week boost through the incredible running of the charismatic Jamaican, Usain Bolt.

As long as their main properties were scoring gold, NBC's incoming narrative did not need to be altered. Little was mentioned on the prime time telecasts about the softball team losing to Japan, the lack of medals among America's boxers (usually a big draw), and the ongoing problems with China's government over human rights demonstrations and altering of the Opening Ceremonies. Of course, a bit of this and a bit of that was mentioned and shown, but the lion's share of coverage was already predetermined by the network executives.

We now fast forward to the next big event, this week's Democratic National Convention in Denver. Leading up to the first night's telecast, the cable pundits are all ablaze about the possibility of some of Hillary's ardent supporters holding out on Barack Obama. Interviews with holdout delegates are filling the screen. "Obama dissed us. He did not reach out to us. I will not vote for him."

So the narrative is already in place. Obama must genuflect toward Hillary and her backers or lose the election. This is one of the reasons why our last blog entry entreated Obama to pick Hillary to be his VP choice. If he could fully make up with this large group, the party would have been united before even setting foot in Denver, and all the energy would have been focused on John McCain.

Instead, Obama, for reasons he only knows, chose Joe Biden. Biden, if the Dems win, will be a great Vice-President and should be a great candidate. But Obama missed the point. Hillary came oh-so-close to the nomination and he really had little choice but to choose her as his running mate. Obviously, most of the Clinton folk do not want to lose abortion rights, curtail gay rights, expand medical coverage for most Americans, and end the war in Iraq. For those reasons and others, they will almost all come back in the fold.

But by playing this game with their feelings, Obama has fed into the week's narrative. The broadcasters and reporters are now primed to play the Obama-Clinton rift to its fullest. Never mind, that by week's end the conflict will have settled down. Obama now will have to kiss up to the Clintonites while trying to stare down his up and coming Republican challenger. His need for a single purpose at the Denver convention is up in smoke. Instead of all news items being about the opposition, all we are getting are reports about "behind-the-scenes" negotiations with Hillary.

We will mention this one more time. Obama, this election is not about you. It is about the millions who want "change" and want it now. By being stubborn and refusing to fully embrace what should be his base, he continues to delay the full acceptance of his nomination and is losing the "wow" factor day after day. Time is running out. Biden was good. Hillary would have been better.