It's hard keeping up with the news. Imagine the plight of columnists and bloggers who were all set to sing the praises of Barack Obama and the Democrats: How they made peace in the imperial mile high city of Denver, held the coronation of the young Senator Barrackus Obamus, and symbolically put the political daggar into the heart of general Julius McCain even before his own convention circus in Saint Paul. Our words were getting sharpened, our points ready to be made, and our opinions set to be recorded for all posterity.
But just a scant twelve hours or so after the curtain fell on the 84,000 strong Democratic party, word came that McCain had an ace up his sleeve. More accurately, he had bagged big game from the far north. McCain surprised everyone by choosing first term Alaska Governor, Sarah Palin, as his newly minted running mate. All of us who write and report on things political, had to "stop the presses" and reset what we were going to comment about.
The first paragraph above is more than enough talk about Obama. It is obvious with his large TV crowd (more watched his speech than did the opening ceremony of the Olympics), his newly minted eight point Gallup spread, and the general feel goodness of all towards the Clintons and Obama's own VP choice, Joe Biden, all seemed well.
McCain must have sensed as much as he made a last minute change in his plans and chose the photogenic Mrs. Palin. All eyes had fallen upon another conservative voice, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. All eyes were wrong. McCain must have seen strong internal polling data and was convinced that a last minute "Hail Mary" choice would be his only chance of winning the election.
By choosing Governor Palin here is what McCain gained:
- The loyalty and enthusiasm of the same Evangelical bloc that supported President Bush.
- A storyline for people to follow in St. Paul and an opportunity to have his own strong TV ratings.
- The chance to reinforce his western style outside the box maverick appeal.
- An opportunity to peel away some middle of the road Hillary Clinton supporters.
By choosing Governor Palin here is what McCain lost:
-Much of his credibility. Over and over again, McCain acknowledged that he was not young and needed the most seasoned person to be his number two.
-A large group of moderate, so called independent voters. By moving so dramatically to his right McCain will no longer be able to win over environmentalists, animal rights activists, moderate pro choice women and men, and many other groups who will look at Governor Palin's statements and record and realize how right wing she really is.
-The trust of GOP leaders. If he was going to pick a religious conservative why not Pawlenty or Governor Huckabee, the former Presidential candidate? If a woman, why now Senator Kay Baily Hutchinson of Texas or his own economic guru, Carly Fiorina? With little regard to gathering the opinions of his party veterans, McCain showed them that he himself would be in charge of things; not them.
-The trust of ordinary citizens. Perhaps Governor Palin will be an incredible quick learn, pick up the vital talking points needed to handle the press and used in debates, and turn this whole thing around for the GOP. But if she stumbles just a bit, people will wonder what other type of "knee-jerk" decisions will this future commander-in-chief make. He already went out on quite a limb with his cold war style reaction to the recent Georgia-Russia conflict. Is McCain the seasoned political pro who can make the nuanced diplomatic decisions needed to keep the country on an even keel or will he throw caution to the wind in order to make political hay?
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