State Of The Race

We have been spending most of our time dissecting the various issues, personalities, and major events of this epic presidential campaign. But as we move ever so closer to Election Day (literally three weeks plus two days from now), it would be prudent to take a snapshot of where the candidates are at this moment on the all important electoral college.

We would refer our readers to three excellent websites to get latest polling numbers and trends: 538.com, Real Clear Politics, and USA Today.com. These sites hold no particular allegiance to any of the candidates and digest information from a large number of sources. Numbers are crunched and projections are made.

538 places a percentage of winning certitude. Just four weeks ago, McCain was actually at a 52% chance of winning the presidency. Oh, but that was four weeks ago. How things have changed so quickly. As of today (Sunday, October 12), Obama is listed as the favorite at 94%. That leaves McCain at less than a one in ten chance of pulling out a victory. If you are rooting for the Republican, you should take heart that as mentioned above, things can change in a hurry. You also know that Wednesday night's debate will be the last major political event of the season. Unless McCain scores at a minimum, a three run homer, the game changer that everyone is looking for will not happen. On the other hand, there can always be the outside event (i.e. bin Laden's spooky election eve video four years ago) that neither candidate can control and can spice things up.

Over at USA Today, Obama is listed with 248 electoral votes to McCain's 135 (remember 270 is the magic victory number). An incredibly large swath of southern states are considered toss ups. These include: Georgia, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia. Based on past elections and projections by many other experts, this seems a bit of a stretch at this time. It would be hard to believe that McCain is in that much trouble in his base states.

Meanwhile at Real Clear, Obama is over the top with 277 votes to McCain's 158. Real Clear lists 103 votes as up for grabs. What makes this amazing, is that Real Clear gives the aforementioned southern group of states to McCain, and still has Obama winning the election. Even if McCain turned things around and pulled in Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, and Colorado, Obama would still become the next President.

Obviously, the once in a lifetime economic situation, has boosted Obama's campaign to the stratosphere. Hard pressed Americans are looking beyond the cultural issues that Republicans prefer elections to revolve around, and are truly seeking that proverbial change. McCain and his cohorts have tried desperately in the past ten days to turn the election back to a referendum on Obama, his supposed inexperience, his mysterious alliances, and his unorthodox background (read Ivy elitism, his middle name, and if you would, his skin color). As of this moment, almost none of these attacks seem to be sticking. Indeed, Obama's new (perhaps old as we have been watching it for over a year and a half) way of presenting the issues and trying to make elections more of a dialogue, has been working to an extent no one would have thought possible.

As we watch the clock wind down on these twenty-three crucial days, the question will be is the election Obama's to lose or McCain's to win. How each candidate answers will determine how they conduct themselves on the campaign trail, in that crucial debate, and in the advertisements that continually bombard us everyday.