Saturday, August 30, 2008

We Came To Praise Obama and ... Palin?


It's hard keeping up with the news. Imagine the plight of columnists and bloggers who were all set to sing the praises of Barack Obama and the Democrats: How they made peace in the imperial mile high city of Denver, held the coronation of the young Senator Barrackus Obamus, and symbolically put the political daggar into the heart of general Julius McCain even before his own convention circus in Saint Paul. Our words were getting sharpened, our points ready to be made, and our opinions set to be recorded for all posterity.

But just a scant twelve hours or so after the curtain fell on the 84,000 strong Democratic party, word came that McCain had an ace up his sleeve. More accurately, he had bagged big game from the far north. McCain surprised everyone by choosing first term Alaska Governor, Sarah Palin, as his newly minted running mate. All of us who write and report on things political, had to "stop the presses" and reset what we were going to comment about.

The first paragraph above is more than enough talk about Obama. It is obvious with his large TV crowd (more watched his speech than did the opening ceremony of the Olympics), his newly minted eight point Gallup spread, and the general feel goodness of all towards the Clintons and Obama's own VP choice, Joe Biden, all seemed well.

McCain must have sensed as much as he made a last minute change in his plans and chose the photogenic Mrs. Palin. All eyes had fallen upon another conservative voice, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. All eyes were wrong. McCain must have seen strong internal polling data and was convinced that a last minute "Hail Mary" choice would be his only chance of winning the election.

By choosing Governor Palin here is what McCain gained:

- The loyalty and enthusiasm of the same Evangelical bloc that supported President Bush.

- A storyline for people to follow in St. Paul and an opportunity to have his own strong TV ratings.

- The chance to reinforce his western style outside the box maverick appeal.

- An opportunity to peel away some middle of the road Hillary Clinton supporters.

By choosing Governor Palin here is what McCain lost:

-Much of his credibility. Over and over again, McCain acknowledged that he was not young and needed the most seasoned person to be his number two.

-A large group of moderate, so called independent voters. By moving so dramatically to his right McCain will no longer be able to win over environmentalists, animal rights activists, moderate pro choice women and men, and many other groups who will look at Governor Palin's statements and record and realize how right wing she really is.

-The trust of GOP leaders. If he was going to pick a religious conservative why not Pawlenty or Governor Huckabee, the former Presidential candidate? If a woman, why now Senator Kay Baily Hutchinson of Texas or his own economic guru, Carly Fiorina? With little regard to gathering the opinions of his party veterans, McCain showed them that he himself would be in charge of things; not them.

-The trust of ordinary citizens. Perhaps Governor Palin will be an incredible quick learn, pick up the vital talking points needed to handle the press and used in debates, and turn this whole thing around for the GOP. But if she stumbles just a bit, people will wonder what other type of "knee-jerk" decisions will this future commander-in-chief make. He already went out on quite a limb with his cold war style reaction to the recent Georgia-Russia conflict. Is McCain the seasoned political pro who can make the nuanced diplomatic decisions needed to keep the country on an even keel or will he throw caution to the wind in order to make political hay?

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Thank The Clintons


A little made up tension is not such a bad thing. Of course, anyone with any knowledge of politics knows that Bill and Hillary would come around to fully support Senator Obama. (This is being written just hours before Bill's Wednesday night speech). The two of them are Democrats and any longtime member of a major political party must find a way to bury the hatchet and move on with the majority. The Clintons are not fools and know where their bread is buttered.

But with a convention in Denver devoid of any suspense, as it is already preordained that Obama would receive the nomination, why not add a little drama to the mix to convince people that turning into the convention would be "must see TV". Without the Clinton angle what would the convention have looked like. A bunch of no name politicos praising Obama and raining damnation upon McCain and President Bush. After a few tired speeches (see keynote speaker Mark Warner as an example), the general population would have turned off the cable and broadcast channels airing the Denver love fest and gone back to more entertaining options on their cable boxes.

So in the long run, the so called "Obama-Clinton rift" will be looked at as a blessing. Monday night, over twenty-two million watched as Michelle Obama sang her husband's praises while giving the first salvo of recognition to Hillary. Tuesday night, millions more were riveted as Hillary herself
gave a concise twenty-three minute speech proclaiming her loyalty to Mr. Obama. Instead of a plodding speech by a former president, all eyes are now going to be glued to the screen as Bill reaches within himself to come to peace with his wife's former competitor. And of course, Thursday night promises more excitement as not only Barack Obama accepts an historical nomination but uses part of his precious time to thank the Clintons for their newly found love.

The Democratic Party's long primary battle squeezed the GOP and John McCain off the front pages for months on end and this last bit of suspense has continued the process. The Republicans will be hard pressed to create the Hollywood story that is playing out in Denver and will almost definitely come short in drawing the amount of Americans who watched the Democrat's convention. The fight for unity and hope just still might trump the call for a retreat to the past and a play for the politics of fear and hatred.

Monday, August 25, 2008

The Narrative In Beijing & Denver

NBC paid billions for the Olympics. They would be damned if anything got in their way of scoring high ratings and turning as many bucks as possible. The first week found the Michael Phelps journey falling into their laps. Coupled with the week and a half battle between America's gymnastic sweethearts and the allegedly underage Chinese tumblers, the Olympics took on a life of its own. Night after night the screen was filled with swimming, bikini clad American volleyballers, and high flying gymnasts. Although not quite as exciting to American audiences (at least to NBC's thinking), the network did get a second week boost through the incredible running of the charismatic Jamaican, Usain Bolt.

As long as their main properties were scoring gold, NBC's incoming narrative did not need to be altered. Little was mentioned on the prime time telecasts about the softball team losing to Japan, the lack of medals among America's boxers (usually a big draw), and the ongoing problems with China's government over human rights demonstrations and altering of the Opening Ceremonies. Of course, a bit of this and a bit of that was mentioned and shown, but the lion's share of coverage was already predetermined by the network executives.

We now fast forward to the next big event, this week's Democratic National Convention in Denver. Leading up to the first night's telecast, the cable pundits are all ablaze about the possibility of some of Hillary's ardent supporters holding out on Barack Obama. Interviews with holdout delegates are filling the screen. "Obama dissed us. He did not reach out to us. I will not vote for him."

So the narrative is already in place. Obama must genuflect toward Hillary and her backers or lose the election. This is one of the reasons why our last blog entry entreated Obama to pick Hillary to be his VP choice. If he could fully make up with this large group, the party would have been united before even setting foot in Denver, and all the energy would have been focused on John McCain.

Instead, Obama, for reasons he only knows, chose Joe Biden. Biden, if the Dems win, will be a great Vice-President and should be a great candidate. But Obama missed the point. Hillary came oh-so-close to the nomination and he really had little choice but to choose her as his running mate. Obviously, most of the Clinton folk do not want to lose abortion rights, curtail gay rights, expand medical coverage for most Americans, and end the war in Iraq. For those reasons and others, they will almost all come back in the fold.

But by playing this game with their feelings, Obama has fed into the week's narrative. The broadcasters and reporters are now primed to play the Obama-Clinton rift to its fullest. Never mind, that by week's end the conflict will have settled down. Obama now will have to kiss up to the Clintonites while trying to stare down his up and coming Republican challenger. His need for a single purpose at the Denver convention is up in smoke. Instead of all news items being about the opposition, all we are getting are reports about "behind-the-scenes" negotiations with Hillary.

We will mention this one more time. Obama, this election is not about you. It is about the millions who want "change" and want it now. By being stubborn and refusing to fully embrace what should be his base, he continues to delay the full acceptance of his nomination and is losing the "wow" factor day after day. Time is running out. Biden was good. Hillary would have been better.

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Give Us Hillary


Dear Senator Obama,

Let's get right to the point. Do the right thing. Give us Hillary. Swallow your pride. Lick your wounds. Get up off the mat and get with the program. Enough with the nuanced answers. Hillary is a lion and not only will she be a strong voice for you but she will help you find your own voice.

McCain has been hammering you with celebrity nonsense. He has his minions hinting that you are really not like most of us. He is playing a veiled race card. You combine that with the lack of familiarity that many Americans have with you and it is not hard to see why the polls are getting tighter.

You have been playing games for far too long with this nomination. A great majority of Americans are ready to move away from the Bush years. They do want to embrace your change. But you are not giving them enough reassurance. You are looking too political. You are being a bit arrogant by laughing off the opposition's attacks. Sure Senators Bayh and Biden are credible vice-presidential picks but the air will be let out of the balloon if you choose them.

Get deep within yourself. For once, let go of those professorial mental gymnastics and give us real passion. Oh, we see that in those wonderful speeches. Yeah, but those are getting old. You looked a bit flustered and not with it in Reverend Warren's church the other night. The older guy actually looked like he wanted the presidency more than you did.

So now you are about to make your first real decision. A choice that will ultimately lead you to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue or back to your Chicago home. Make history. Rally the troops. Give us our red meat. Give us Hillary.

Hillary has proven to be a real fighter. She will be the ultimate attack dog against the crap the GOP has been throwing your way. Nothing will escape her (and Bill). She warned you that there is nothing like the war the Republicans would engage you in. Have you had enough already? It seems like you cannot do this on your own. Kerry couldn't, neither Dukakis, and unfortunately Gore.

The Clintons know how to get down and dirty. And if you do not know by now that the election will be wrestled in the mud then maybe you do not deserve to be our leader. Stop trying to calculate how one VP pick could help in this or that state. Screw all that and give us Hillary.

Hillary will be loyal to you. She will get you back the entire feminist vote. She will get you much of the Jewish vote (hello Florida!). She will up your numbers with Hispanics. She will get those wavering Reagan Democrats back in your column.

Oh, she and her husband have all that baggage. Well, they know how to win. Her campaign froze after Super Tuesday and you took advantage. But look at what happened in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, and many of the other late deciding primary states. She kicked butt. Now harness that energy and pick this dynamic woman.

Senator Obama, you have come this far. You have to be tasting victory. You have to be imagining what it will be like to have your beautiful wife and children residing in that big White House. But all that you are dreaming for for this nation and yourself will not take place if you do not win. You have only seen just a preview of what the enemy will throw your way in the weeks and months to come.

Senator Obama, do not gamble with our future. Secure the victory. Raise the roof. Give us Hillary.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

McCain Wins


Instant pundit analysis had John McCain the clear instant winner in Saturday night's Rick Warren faith forum held in Lake Forest, California at the huge Saddleback Church. McCain was hailed on CNN and MSNBC for his quick and decisive answers to Warren's questions, his storytelling abilities,and his overall connection to both the TV viewing audience and those watching live at the church.

However, as time moves on from the initial responses, one has to wonder if McCain will still be seen as the victor in the dueling one hour gabfests. A sober look reveals:

- McCain is quick to pull the trigger. When asked about merit pay for teachers and school choice (code for public vouchers for private schooling), McCain literally stopped Warren and screamed out Yes & Yes! No nuance there.

- McCain is playing to the farthest right of the Christian vote. McCain again did not pull any punches with his definition of conception, his support for a Constitutional amendment to ban abortions, and his opposition to gay marriage. McCain did not see any reason to pander towards women's groups, social libertarians, and other more moderate voters.

- McCain loves his military roots. McCain revealed that the most important person he will listen to in his administration will be Iraqi war general, David Petraeus. He told the Russians in no uncertain terms to get out of Georgia immediately. Once, he mixed up Russia with the Soviet Union, which would not be hard for a person weaned on the latter country's cold war dominance. Unsaid was how McCain would pay for possible future war efforts.

- McCain will give them what they want when he knows that what they want will never take hold (interpretation: Oil rules!). McCain is taking a all of the above approach to energy. He supports oil drilling, conservation, clean coal, nuclear,wind etc. Sounded good on TV. Left unsaid was that McCain has voted numerous times to withhold federal funding for many new technologies. Like we said above, he knows most Americans will not read the bottom line and like the snake oil he is pushing.

- McCain can throw out the red meat like the rest of the GOP leadership. He especially enjoyed attacking the four more "liberal" Supreme Court justices and claimed he will pick "strict constructionist" judges if elected. Once again, this was a line to the Far Right that he had their back on issues such as gay rights and abortion access.

Finally, one has to wonder if this initial faith forum will now be penciled in for future election cycles. There is no problem with two candidates discussing some of their faith and Christian values. However, what will be the disadvantage if someone from a different belief system or religion is chosen to be one of the two main party standard bearers. Will the discussion center on shared values and concepts, or become a witch hunt to demean the candidate's religion and put him or her on the defensive for most of the night. As enlightening as the Saddleback discussion was, it was a strong step toward putting a "religious test" upon our prospective president. The meeting went on last night, much was learned, but it might be quite difficult to put the genie back in the bottle.

Thursday, August 14, 2008

If It's Tuesday It Must Be Sydney, Athens, Beijing...


Hail all new media! With the advent of streaming internet video, multiple cable channels, cell phone technology, and good old broadcasting TV, the ratings are up in Beijing. NBC Universal is the big winner as its monetary bets have paid off with the huge success from these current Chinese Olympics.

Yes, everyone is getting into the Olympic spirit. Fans can get total wall to wall coverage of their favorite sport on NBC's Olympic website. Boxing, baseball, softball, tennis, and badminton among others are being watched over on MSNBC, Bravo, USA, and CNBC. In fact, the ratings for MSNBC and CNBC are literally through the roof (although that would not take that much for the two low rated channels).

So, is this a new moment in the way America views the premier sporting event that comes our way once every four years? No! That is right. Despite all the newfangled ways to catch up on the Olympics, the story lines being presented are no different from any other Olympics.

-Primetime: NBC is still devoting what it considers the most sexiest of sports, to the most watched channel and time slots. You won't see much bicycle racing or equestrian events after the magic 8 pm start. This is holy ground and the place where NBC hopes to recoup all the billions it has laid out for the Olympics.

-The Game Plan: No matter what is taking place around the world, within China, or in the games themselves, NBC is basically creating a plot line that must be adhered to. The story aspects include:

-Water (and lots of it) will be featured: Hulky male swimmers and athletic females in a translucent water cube are always a big sale. Add in American dominance in swimming and of course, hero of the hour, Micheal Phelps, and you have swimming and lots of it

-Gymnastics: Stretch the gymnastic meets out to four separate days each for men and women and half the Olympics will feature this event that is also a big draw. Add in a controversy over the age of the Chinese team participants and two over the top perky American girls, and you have hit a ratings bonanza.

-Beach Volleyball: Screw the traditional team volleyball. Place two apiece, muscular tanned male teams and bikini clad Amazon women, and you have a good thirty or so minute filler between the two main events mentioned above.

-The Today Show: Proof positive that one would not know whether we were watching Athens, Barcelona, or any other games. Do not interview winning athletes from other countries. Stoke the flames of nationalism. Disregard the gold medal efforts of stars such as China's Yang Wei who overcame his own Olympic problems to be crowned this year's overall men's champion in gymnastics. Instead, have an incredibly narrow discussion on Thursday morning's show with Mary Lou Retton, Tim Daggett and Elsie Schlegel who only talked about American chances in the overall female category and did not even know the names of the Chinese competitors.

-NBC Nightly News: Live from Beijing, respect NBC anchor Brian Williams has been reduced to a shrill for the corporate good. One lead story each night (usually on the Russia-Georgia conflict) is followed by over twenty more minutes of pure Olympic news coverage. Yes, a few stories are warranted but what happened to our own USA-Iraq conflict and the so called important presidential race.

-Georgia vs. Russia: Finally, to show that they do put things in context, NBC showed how a beach volleyball match pitting two females each from Russia and Georgia were able to put things off and compete in a somewhat friendly manner. Of course what was not emphasized was that both of Georgia's players were actually rentals from Brazil who had no relatives in the small nation and were going back to Brazil as soon as the Olympics were over.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Olympic Anxiety


So you are going to hold a big event. Perhaps a birthday party. A sweet sixteen (do girls still have them?). A Quinceanera (big in Southern California). A coming out debutante ball (nah, most of us have nothing to do with that one). A wedding. A big anniversary date. The point is, whatever the big occasion is going to be, you want everything to run smoothly.

All of us know what it is like to pencil in a date on the calendar for that special moment. Once locked in, there's no turning back. Depending on the time of year, weather could be a problem. What about an important relative or friend that everyone knows that might have a car accident, fall ill, or even die just on the eve of the party. Definitely not something you can control and definitely something that could put a real damper upon the festivities.

Therefore all of us can agree that planning out an important party has incredible risk. You hold your breadth at times, you pray, you cross your fingers, and do whatever you can to turn back the anxiety of something catastrophic ruining the upcoming occasion. For most people, thousands of dollars might be put up to reserve a hall or church, order food and flowers, purchase special clothing, and on the list goes.

But what if your party spending was not in the thousands, not in the millions, but in the billions. What if your event was going to be held in various locales that were both indoor and outdoor. What if your guests were coming from hundreds of far away places and carried with them feelings of friendship and hostility towards both you the host and the other gathering guests.

Well, if your party met most of the criteria just mentioned in the last paragraph, you might be playing host to that once every four year mega-event: the Summer Olympics. And if you were the host of this year's superbash, you would be feeling the nervousness of the host country: China.

Chinese officials have enough problems on their hands that they must have spent inordinate amounts of time checking their lucky numbers and the celestial skies to be sure that nothing else would intrude on their big moment. Intense Beijing smog, dope filled athletes, and international ticketing scams were some of the problems that the host Olympic Committee knew needed to be addressed.

But beyond local weather and Olympic associated problems, all the Chinese can do is pray that nothing too large or too negative would take peoples' minds off of this year's Olympic slogan of One World - One Dream. C'mon, for a lousy seventeen days, couldn't most of the world kind of get along and let bygones be bygones and plow their swords into the earth and at least do a make believe embrace. Billions have been invested and billions are watching.

So can we empathize with the Chinese? Here they have just finished the fantastic opening ceremonies with a cast of thousands of highly trained enthusaiastic acrobats, musicians, young people, and myriad others. The fireworks were set off, and before the last of the smoke dissipated, fireworks of another type were being sent off in an out of nowhere war between Russia and Georgia for some unknown province now known to everyone as South Ossetia. And to make things even worse, a country called to the carpet for overdoing security, is being asked why more security was not employed when two innocent Americans were knifed (one fatally) by a crazed Chinese citizen who then threw himself to his own death.

A Bird's Nest. An aquarmarine swimming hall. Death defying gymnasts and divers. An amazing American basketball team. A young man named Michael Phelps on a gold mission. These were the things that the Chinese wanted to showcase to the world during this short season of international sport. But on a planet filled with greed and suspicion, not even one day (let alone seveneteen) could be free from the usual mayhem. Unfortunately, the slogan chosen by the Chinese has become all too true - One world living in harmony is indeed a dream. A dream that is just that.

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Hawaii Obama-O!

It was the dog days of August that did in John Kerry. While he was out sailing, the GOP opposition was able to do him in. First, the act of sailing by himself fed in to the attack line that Kerry was aloof and "not one of us". Second, his summer vacation robbed Kerry of precious days to dig in in a key swing state such as Ohio, and eventually helped him to lose there. Finally, while he was drifting off, the Swiftboat ads were being unleashed, and Kerry was not in top campaign shape and did not realize how he needed to immediately fight back the over-the-top accusations.

Could the Obama campaign be such poor students of history and repeat Kerry's mistakes? Perhaps, they will be. Obama just recently returned from the Middle East and Europe. That trip was designed to prop up his somewhat lightweight foreign policy credentials. All in all the trip went well. However, the timing of the overseas expedition could not have come at a worse time. Just as he was leaving, the gas crunch and mortgage crisis had combined to make the national economy the number one concern among voters. So while Obama was basking in the applause of 200,000 Germans, most Americans had turned away from looking across the Atlantic and were focusing on their checkbooks. There can be no doubt that as the long week went on, many Obama advisors could only wish that their candidate would get home quickly to talk about monetary issues.

After Obama finally came back to the States, he faced the energy and economic crises head-on and has now begun to turn these issues into more favorable ones for his campaign. Still, his trip to Europe seemed to have frozen his lead over McCain to somewhere around a four or five national point lead in most polls.

There is something to be said about Republican strategists. They seem to have no trouble boldly going after their opponent and making outlandish claims and tearing down the character of the Democrat nominee. Turning the success that Obama had over in Europe, they have hit upon the weird idea that Obama is a celebrity that has a pretty face but has empty solutions. Whether these arguments are true or not, they do seem to have found some sticking power. Now would be the time for Obama to shed his above the fray aloofness, dispel these ridiculous ideas, and hit Senator McCain with as much stuff as possible to put the Republican on the defensive.

You would think all of this would make sense for the Obama campaign. So just as he is getting back in stride and hitting mid size and rural America, where will Obama be next week? That's right, thousands of miles across the Pacific in his home state of Hawaii. Time for vacation!

As we stated above, have the Dems not learned anything? There will be plenty of vacation time when and if Obama loses in November. He could go to the moon for all anyone will care at that point. There are less than three months to the election and Obama is going on vacation.

Oh you say, the Olympics will be going on. So, what about that? Except for NBC, the rest of the news outlets will have plenty of time to cover political stories. If McCain continues forging ahead with his town hall meetings across the American heartland, what will they show about Obama? Stretching out across some beautiful Hawaiian beach? Doing a hula dance? Trust me, the GOP can take a benign picture (i.e. Kerry's sailing) and turn it around to their advantage..

Most likely, Obama's handlers are still trying to paint his biography and want to fill in the blanks with this trip. But realistically, the time for all that has passed. People know more about him than you would think. He has been running for president for about a year and a half and has had more publicity that just about anyone else during that time (except of course - Paris and Britney!).

Cut the Hawaii trip down to a serviceable three days and get the hell back out on the campaign trail. When things get tough you have to fight hard for what you want. Remember, as Tom Hanks reminded us in "A League Of Their Own", there is no crying in baseball. And there damn shouldn't be any vacations in presidential politics.

Sunday, August 3, 2008

COMEBACKS


In one of the craziest games of the season, the New York Yankees came back and defeated the league leading LA Angels 14 to 9 this afternoon. Down quickly 5 to 0, the Yanks got off the mat and eventually took an 8 to 5 lead after seven innings. New Angel, Mark Teixeira, smashed a grand slam in the eighth inning but the Bombers relying on a host of Angel fielding miscues eventually pulled out the win and completed the comeback.

As this game took place on the second of August, we thought it might be good to look at some other possible comebacks during the so called "Dog days of August".

Big Brown: The heralded three year old horse also pulled off a double comeback this afternoon. After what looked like a career threatening performance in the Belmont Stakes, Brown showed up in New Jersey to run the Haskell Invitational. Not only did he finish the race but he came from a well off the pace second place to claim victory. Perhaps the stud farm will have to wait just a bit longer.

John McCain: His comeback is being orchestrated by a media hungry for a horse race of a different stripe. Facing the possibility of a steady but boring Obama lead, all news outlets are trumpeting up every scenario possible to make the election close and boost ratings. One that really caught our attention was a CNN report that Obama had a seven point lead before going to Europe and still had a seven point lead once he returned. This was interpreted to mean that he had not received a boost and was thus vulnerable. Really? A seven point lead seems like a nice place to be at this point in the race but CNN made it like McCain had earned a victory. Another case in point - How much free TV time did the GOP gain by putting Britney and Paris on that anti-Obama ad? With all the terrible things going on in the real world, here was a back door way for mainstream media to hook on to the Britney-Paris express.

Britney Spears: Recent LA Times reports that Brittney has somewhat sobered up, that Dad has taken the reins of her life, and that even the paparazzi have gotten a bit tired of her, gives some hope that a new, more intelligent Brittney might emerge in the near future. Being paired with Obama might not be good for his image but it might do wonders for hers.

Dara Torres: A fantastic looking forty-one year old Olympic swimmer who most of us barely remember from her past victories, has become the poster girl for the upcoming Beijing games. However, the illness of her coach and suspicions of doping among the swimming community could derail this incredible attention gathering story.

U.S.A. Mens' Basketball Team: Talk about an overhyped comeback story! Here you have a team of zillionaires (Kobe, LeBron, Carmelo, etc.) in a tournament against the likes of Greece, Russia, and Spain. Yeah, past teams have struggled recently in international competition but this third incarnation of the "dream team" just can't lose. Only in America (and in the minds of NBC and the NBA) could such a talented team be seen as "the comeback kids".

Hillary: Well this story could go many ways. Let's leave it at that.