Wednesday, February 6, 2008

A Look Back At Super Tuesday

Notes on Super Tuesday

GOP - What's to discuss? McCain did a bang up job and is this close to becoming the nominee. If Romney drops out presumptive vp candidate Huckabee will be the last obstacle.

Right Wing Radio - Get over it! Are you really going to swallow your mikes while Obama or Clinton move towards the White House and appointments of judges that you would disdain? Of course not! There are ratings to be won and what other way for the right wing to keep their audience happy but by yelling lies and hatred at the Dems.

Caucuses - Give Obama's political team a thumbs up for sweeping up easy delegates and adding states to their columns through this arcane attempt at democracy. They put in the money and effort to pack the caucuses with true believers and young fans to dominate in Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, and North Dakota (Don't forget that all this started back in Iowa with a caucus!)

Fake Victories - On paper Obama won all the states mentioned above. But would the results have been different or much tighter had the caucus states ran primaries? How many seniors wanted to get out on a cold Tuesday evening and spend two hours in a local school gym or library? Relatively few people in most of the Super Tuesday caucus states made it seem that Obama had won landslide victories. Yes, Clinton's campaign should have had a better strategy for this; but real primary voting with huge numbers of participants would show that the apparent depth of Obama's following is not as unlimited as it semed to be.

Movement Politics - The new buzz word just emerging is "Movement". As in Clinton is fighting a movement and it will only be a matter of time before the movement engulfs her. The "Movement" indeed gives Obama fresh wads of money and energized supporters who flock to caucus situations.

Polls - Just as in New Hampshire, one must wonder where those polls are coming from. The most quoted poll was one in California two days out, that had Obama up 36 to 34, closing a once large double digit Clinton lead. Well we all know how that ended - Clinton took the Golden State by ten big percentage points.

The Media Storyline - The story goes something like this: The young upstart multi-racial candidate with a call for change and a new utopia is tracking down the old fashioned centrist Democrat weened on political wars. A new era is about to dawn as the candidate and his young followers "The Movement" overtake the once promising female and her overprotective husband. Every large rally and new endorsement get played up while her rallies and endorsements are parsed over. There is no conspiracy here but check out how negative the cable and network news teams are on Clinton. Where to look first - try MSNBC's Keith Olbermann who repeatedly swept away any good news (and there was plenty of it) under the carpet and sang Obama's praises all night on Super Tuesday.

Mail-In Ballots - How could the experts not factor this in? Up to fifty percent of the voting in California and in other states (see Florida) came in before Super Tuesday. The Clinton camp seems to do as well with this type of voting as the Obamas do with the caucuses. Then the media continually talks about how so many people in the last three days (see Florida) broke for Obama. Well, duh, of course. The Clinton supporters (i.e. women and seniors) knew exactly who they wanted from day one and as soon as possible got their hands on the ballots and sent them in. So the pool of late decision makers was absent the hardcore Clinton people and naturally would look in favor towards Obama.

MORE TO COME!!

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